Basics of the INF Treaty

  • The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, signed on December 8, 1987, was a bilateral arms control agreement between the US and Russia. It banned the two countries from possessing, producing, or testing ground-launched short- and intermediate-range (500–5,500 km) ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers. Existing weapons had to be destroyed, and a protocol for mutual inspection was agreed upon.
  • These types of missiles could carry a nuclear warhead to its target location in just ten minutes and so inspired a great deal of fear on all sides. This marked the first time an agreement was reached to eliminate an entire class of weapons.
  • Despite the name of the treaty, the ban extended to weapons with both nuclear and conventional warheads – but it did not apply to air- or sea-launched missiles.

Why did it fall apart?

  • President Trump first announced he would unilaterally withdraw the US from the treaty in October 2018, formally providing its six-month notice period for February 2019. Washington first publicly accused Moscow of being in breach of the treaty in July 2014, following reports that the latter had tested a new ground-launched cruise missile (“9M729” – also known by its NATO designation “SSC-8”) at a distance prohibited by the agreement. In February 2017, US officials said they thought Russia had advanced beyond flight testing and deployed the system operationally. Washington began applying sanctions to pressure Moscow back into compliance.
  • Russia, in turn, accused the US of violating the treaty with its deployment of land-based Aegis missile defense installations in Poland and Romania, on the grounds that these could be easily retrofitted to launch offensive intermediate-range missiles. MIT Professor Ted Postol wrote a detailed article in February 2019 supporting the Russian position, which Washington vehemently denied. Independent analyst Pavel Podvig offered a more nuanced take: “it’s certainly not in line with the spirit of the treaty but it’s okay with the letter of the treaty”.
  • While acknowledging Russia’s manifest violations, some critics of President Trump’s decision to pull out of the treaty believed the Administration should have tried harder to save such an important arms control agreement.

Other likely contributing factors to America’s unilateral withdrawal included the desire to confront China’s rising missile ambitions (Beijing was never a party to the treaty, so not bound by its terms); the influence of foreign policy hawks – most notably John Bolton, National Security Advisor April 2018–September 2019 and a long-time critic of the INF Treaty; and the need for President Trump to appear hawkish towards Moscow given the “Russiagate” embroilment.