Ukraine/Russia
1) What the West should do. A two-page proposal for the US President, British Prime Minister, and French President.
2) How to implement it. Clues from history for today’s decision-makers. It’s noted: “The Korean Armistice, which concluded despite opposition from Secretary of State Dulles, South Korean President Syngman Rhee, and also within Eisenhower’s party.” And by Stephen E. Ambrose, Eisenhower’s biographer, that bringing about the armistice was “the greatest achievement of the administration”. How was the agreement reached with the North? How strong was Eisenhower’s personal conviction, and how was internal resistance overcome? What happened to South Korea’s President, and what would this imply today for Zelensky?
3) Why this is the best route forward. Our aim: for this to be the most comprehensive – and interesting – ten-page Strategic Options Memo one can read on Ukraine. Written in a format for busy decision-makers, not as a magazine features piece. PDF download of the latest version.
If Rothko, Mondrian, Kandinsky and Kay Sage got together to paint the situation we find ourselves in today
Further articles:
Did the West betray Ukraine? The story of 1994, Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons, and the diplomatic doublethink of security “assurances” from the Budapest Memorandum…
Did Ukraine “own” its nuclear weapons? In the early 1990s, Ukraine had the world’s third largest nuclear stockpile. But its nuclear inheritance is contested. Can you “own” something you can’t use?
Diplomacy in March/April 2022 – a full chronology (video)
What did Bill Burns (now CIA Director) say about NATO expansion in his 2019 book?
We would like to commission:
If you would like to write one of the below articles for us, please get in touch. We are seeking balanced writers (or writing duos – capable of harnessing civil disagreement), who can argue both sides. As Harold Ross (founder of The New Yorker) wrote to F. Scott Fitzgerald in 1929: “I wish to God you would write other things for us. You wouldn’t get rich doing it, but it ought to give you satisfaction.” We wish to commission very able writers on the following topics:
I) Minsk agreements: a primer. An authoritative piece, faithfully presenting all perspectives of how the agreements came to be, that could be used to brief a new incoming US administration. Bring very busy decision-makers up to speed, with a digestible and concise account.
II) Comprehensive terms for a negotiated outcome. Pitch us a two-page plan that hits all tactical points that will ultimately be in question: future security guarantees, territory, intermediate-range missile agreements (revive the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty? Nuclear weapons in Belarus...), trade and possible EU accession, prisoner releases, de-mining, rebuilding infrastructure, access to the Black Sea, frozen Russian assets and sanctions… What should be done on each – that might actually be palatable to all sides in peace talks? We will publish any A* submissions. (Believe it or not: such a document did not exist inside the State Department during WWI, despite Woodrow Wilson wanting to broker peace talks.)
III) A new foreign policy for Europe. Assume President Trump gets back in power, January 20, 2025. What does a sensible security architecture for Europe look like? Should there be a greater defense dimension to the EU? Though is this in itself provocative to Russia? What should Europe’s goals be, and how can they be achieved? What should Europe’s general stance with Russia be? With China? With America? What are the high-level contours for a new European foreign policy?
IV) The Maidan Revolution, 2014 – what actually happened? Was there a coup against Viktor Yanukovych, or did he flee? A lot is made of this by those arguing against Western policy today in Ukraine. The leaked Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pyatt call isn’t a great look. But it’s also not conclusive evidence of meddling. Oliver Stone has produced his documentary. Here’s one side. Here’s (briefly) the other. We would like to assemble an authoritative, digestible account of events.
V) What should the West be doing to prepare for Putin’s (eventual) death and the power struggle that will likely follow? Who are the most likely successors? The late Dr Kissinger: “Russia’s military setbacks have not eliminated its global nuclear reach, enabling it to threaten escalation in Ukraine. Even if this capability is diminished, the dissolution of Russia or destroying its ability for strategic policy could turn its territory encompassing 11 time zones into a contested vacuum. Its competing societies might decide to settle their disputes by violence. Other countries might seek to expand their claims by force. All these dangers would be compounded by the presence of thousands of nuclear weapons which make Russia one of the world’s two largest nuclear powers.” Professor Kotkin has put forward his “five futures”. What are the West’s hopes for post-Putin Russia?
VI) Does Russia have the right not to be a democracy? Should the West be trying to encourage a change in governance structure in Russia? As noted by Michael McFaul, every enemy of the US for the past 100 years has been a dictatorship. Post-WWII transformation of autocracies into democracies (Germany, Japan, Italy…) has made countries allies of the US. Would Russia be stronger, in its own self-interest, if it became a legitimate democracy? But, is that not that country’s right to decide itself? Include Gorbachev’s hopes for democratization, and a brief history of National Endowment for Democracy activity. Best arguments for and against, presented together.