The Open Skies Treaty

President Eisenhower proposed an “Open Skies” agreement in 1955, to reduce the risk of war.

From Stephen Ambrose’s 1984 biography of Eisenhower:

“Eisenhower had almost decided to propose that the Soviets and the Americans open their airspace to each other, and to provide each other with airfields from which to operate continuous reconnaissance missions. That simple step, Eisenhower was coming to believe, might solve the disarmament dilemma. Eisenhower maintained that the United States could never launch a first strike, both because of American morality and because of the open nature of American society, which precluded secret mobilization. Thus the United States had nothing to lose and much to gain by opening its airspace to the Russians. If American pilots had the same rights over the Soviet Union, it would be impossible for the Russians to launch an undetected nuclear Pearl Harbor, or to otherwise secretly increase their military might By offering unlimited inspection, Eisenhower was trying to use inevitable technological advances to reduce, rather than raise, tensions.

Turning to look directly at the Soviet delegation, he [Eisenhower] said he wanted to speak principally to them. He thereupon proposed “to give to each other a complete blueprint of our military establishments, from beginning to end, from one end of our countries to the other.” Next, “to provide within our countries facilities for aerial photography to the other country.” The Americans would make airfields and other facilities available to the Russians, and allow them to fly wherever they wished. The Russians would provide identical facilities for the United States. When Eisenhower finished, there was a tremendous clap of thunder, and all the lights went out… The French and British expressed their hearty approval of the idea. Bulganin [Soviet Premier at the time] spoke last. The proposal, he said, seemed to have real merit. The Soviet delegation would give it complete and sympathetic study at once.”

Eisenhower (here in 1955) suggested the concept of “mutual aerial observation”. This was intended to nullify the effects of data imbalance. The US then “supported increased transparency to reduce the chances of military confrontation”.

The reason Open Skies didn’t go ahead at the time of Eisenhower’s initial proposition was because Khrushchev (then First Secretary of the Communist Party) was against it. Ambrose in Eisenhower’s biography:

“Open Skies, and other proposals [were made], only to be rebuffed by Khrushchev.

When the session ended, Khrushchev walked beside Eisenhower on the way to cocktails. Although he was smiling, he said, “I don’t agree with the chairman.” Eisenhower could hear ‘no smile in his voice’. Eisenhower realized immediately that Khrushchev [despite then being hierarchically below Soviet Premier Bulganin] was the man in chargeKhrushchev said the idea was nothing more than a bald espionage plot against the Soviet Union. Why Khrushchev reacted so adversely is a puzzle.”

Only uncovered in much later history, Khrushchev had been bluffing about the Soviet’s ICBM capabilities, which closer US flights would have been able to detect. He didn’t allow Open Skies because he was embarrassed about their readiness.

The treaty was however signed decades later on March 24, 1992, entering into force on January 1, 2002. On the treaty:

“The Open Skies Treaty permits each state-party to conduct short-notice, unarmed, reconnaissance flights over the others’ entire territories to collect data on military forces and activities. Observation aircraft used to fly the missions must be equipped with sensors that enable the observing party to identify significant military equipment, such as artillery, fighter aircraft, and armored combat vehicles. Though satellites can provide the same, and even more detailed, information, not all of the treaty states-parties have such capabilities. The treaty is also aimed at building confidence and familiarity.”

With a single Chinese balloon making front-page news for a week in 2023, it’s incredible today to think the US ever advocated for, and allowed, this. But it did. Eisenhower’s original stated principle: “Open societies, in the day of present weapons, are the only answer.”

“All of a state-party’s territory can be overflown. No territory can be declared off-limits by the host nation.” - Arms Control Association

Leverage with Europe:

Mr. Trump’s decision [pulling out of the Open Skies Treaty, in 2020], rumored for some time, is bound to further aggravate European allies, including those in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, who are also signatories to the treaty.

They are likely to remain in the accord, which has nearly three-dozen signatories, but have warned that with Washington’s exit, Russia will almost certainly respond by also cutting off their flights, which the allies use to monitor troop movements on their borders – especially important to the Baltic nations.” (Russia subsequently did pull out.)

President Trump and Secretary Pompeo left the door open: “There’s a chance we may make a new agreement or do something to put that agreement back together.” 

And: “Russia has said that engagement in the treaty is valuable.”

Democrat diplomats (Steven Pifer and Bonnie Jenkins) still support it.

“American officials also note that Mr. Trump was angered by a Russian flight directly over his Bedminster, N.J., golf estate in 2017. And in classified reports, the Pentagon and American intelligence agencies have contended that the Russians are also using flights over the United States to map out critical American infrastructure that could be hit by conventional weapons or cyberattacks.”

Are there provisions that could be added to a revised treaty that would guard against this?